Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
